After 2030, SAF will face a feedstock bottleneck

According to a report by the UK’s GreenAir News, Amsterdam-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supplier SkyNRG stated in its newly released 2025 SAF Market Outlook that the world will face a serious challenge of waste oil and fat feedstock shortages after 2030. The report was jointly published by SkyNRG and global consulting firm ICF.

Currently, about 82% of the global SAF capacity under construction or planned relies on the HEFA pathway (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), which mainly uses waste oils and fats as feedstock. However, SkyNRG warns that as SAF demand continues to surge, these waste oils and fats are also increasingly being used in other industries, potentially reaching the so-called “HEFA tipping point” within the next five years.

The report emphasizes that if alternative pathways—such as alcohol-to-jet, sugar-based biomass, or eSAF—are not rapidly scaled up to commercial levels, the entire industry may encounter a growth bottleneck after 2030. While the past decade has laid a solid foundation proving the viability of SAF, SkyNRG notes that future progress must depend on policy support and technological breakthroughs to diversify feedstock pathways and ensure supply security.