Political Instability Is Becoming the Decisive Risk for Europe’s SAF Strategy
Europe’s growing political and economic instability is emerging as a decisive — and largely negative — variable for the future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) policy, particularly the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation mandatory blending regime. As of early 2026, early warning signs are already visible, and over the next 5–10 years this instability may determine whether the policy succeeds or is fundamentally diluted.
The most immediate and realistic risk is policy softening: target dilution, timeline slippage, or weaker enforcement. Major aviation stakeholders — including airlines, fuel suppliers, and industry associations — have intensified lobbying efforts to delay or lower post-2030 mandates, especially the sharp increase from 6% in 2030 to 20% in 2035, while pushing for greater flexibility through mechanisms such as book-and-claim. Political fragmentation amplifies this pressure. Fragile governments in core EU states, the rise of populist and far-right parties, and a broader shift in EU priorities toward competitiveness and industrial protection have weakened the political foundation of rigid climate mandates. The gradual softening of the EU’s 2035 internal-combustion vehicle ban provides a clear precedent the aviation sector is now actively seeking to replicate.
Beyond policy risk, investment uncertainty poses a more severe medium-term threat. Scaling SAF — particularly e-SAF/PtL pathways — requires tens of billions of euros in system-level investment across hydrogen, renewable power, and fuel synthesis infrastructure, all of which depend on long-term regulatory certainty. Frequent government turnover, tighter financial conditions, higher geopolitical risk premiums, and rising input costs are already delaying or downsizing projects. While announced capacity appears sufficient on paper, realistic delivery rates may fall to 60–70% or lower.
Cost pass-through is already underway. With SAF priced at two to five times conventional jet fuel and full auctioning of aviation ETS allowances from 2026, ticket prices are expected to rise structurally. In high-blend, short-haul, or low-cost airline scenarios, fare increases could reach 10–30%, further eroding competitiveness and fueling public backlash.
Overall, political and economic instability is not external “noise” for SAF policy — it is a core constraint. Without political stability and economic resilience, ReFuelEU risks evolving from a binding transition framework into a largely symbolic instrument with limited real-world impact.