Davos Forum Clean Fuels Panel: EU SAF Mandates Face Backlash, Calls for Gradual Policy

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, a panel on clean fuels highlighted challenges in scaling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with executives urging the EU to rethink aggressive mandates amid high costs and policy uncertainty.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné warned that the EU’s SAF blending targets—jumping from 1% today to 6-10% by 2030—could mirror the recent softening of its 2035 ban on gasoline and diesel car sales. “Such a leap creates panic,” he said, citing SAF’s price as three to four times that of fossil jet fuel, versus two to three times for renewable diesel. Gradual ramps, like those for renewable diesel, have worked better as markets absorb higher costs over time. Pouyanné revealed TotalEnergies is pivoting from costly new biorefineries to co-processing SAF in existing plants, which is more economical and yields 50-60% emissions cuts—preferable to chasing 95-100% reductions.

He dismissed airline lobbying against mandates, claiming TotalEnergies could supply over 10% SAF to European carriers by 2030, exceeding targets—but at a premium. “No one wants to pay extra for green,” he noted, adding policy flips risk stranding investments. Pouyanné also flagged biofuels’ higher abatement costs ($350-400 per ton CO2) compared to solar/wind ($200), advocating holistic energy policies over siloed ones.

Indian Oil Chairman Arvind Singh Saini echoed enthusiasm for co-processing, planning SAF trials in two to three months and ethanol-to-jet pathways, leveraging India’s agricultural biomass and import-dependent oil needs (85-90% of crude).

Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum stressed clean fuels require two-to-threefold price hikes or mandates/subsidies, citing their Uruguay biogas-to-SAF project and UK green hydrogen plant as policy-dependent successes. “Carbon has a time value,” he said.

Harvard’s Elaine Buckberg prioritized SAF for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation. “It’s the linchpin,” she affirmed.

The discussion underscores the need for balanced incentives: phased mandates, subsidies, and tech focus to avoid investment chills and drive viable decarbonization.