USDA Maintains Soybean Oil Demand Forecast for Biofuel Productio

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released on October 9, maintained its forecast for soybean oil use in U.S. biofuel production at 17.8 billion pounds for the 2026/27 marketing year. This represents a significant increase from 14.8 billion pounds projected for 2025/26 and 11.758 billion pounds in 2024/25.

U.S. soybean production for 2026/27 is forecast at 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million bushels from the previous year, primarily due to improved yields. The USDA raised its yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area remains unchanged at 85.9 million acres. Ending soybean stocks are projected to reach 315 million bushels.

The USDA also maintained its price forecasts for 2026/27, with average soybean prices expected at $12 per bushel, soybean meal at $340 per short ton, and soybean oil at 70 cents per pound.

Globally, soybean production is projected to reach 442.7 million metric tons, an increase of 400,000 tons. Higher crushing volumes in Argentina and Thailand, alongside increased exports from the United States and Nigeria, are expected to support global trade.

The rising use of soybean oil in biofuel production remains a key demand driver for the vegetable oil market, although prices will continue to depend on global supply, trade flows, and biofuel policies.