Europe’s Fuel Independence Underestimated: Biofuels and E-Fuels to Complement Electrification

Europe’s “fuel self-sufficiency” potential has been significantly underestimated, with bio-based and synthetic fuels likely to become a key complement to electrification.

A study commissioned by BMW shows that by 2030, domestic European feedstocks could meet 38%–55% of EU road transport fuel demand through renewable alternatives. Under a high-mobilization scenario, this could rise to 67%–107% by 2040—implying theoretical self-sufficiency or even surplus.

First, the feedstock base is far broader than commonly assumed. Research by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), German Biomass Research Centre, and Freyberger Engineering highlights that Europe’s available resource pool for fuel production is significantly larger than market perceptions.

Second, technology pathways are becoming more diverse. The report emphasizes that carbon-neutral fuels (CNF) offer advantages in cost, infrastructure compatibility, and scalability, making them a critical complement to electric vehicles.

Third, feedstock structure has been misjudged. While used cooking oil (UCO) is often seen as the core input, it accounts for only about 1%, with agricultural residues, biomass, and synthetic fuel inputs representing the bulk.

Europe’s future fuel system is likely to follow a dual-track model of electrification plus liquid fuels. For China’s biodiesel and SAF industries, this underscores a key point: the real bottleneck is not UCO, but scaling broader feedstock systems and advancing technology pathways.