Malaysia Palm Oil Prices Seen Range-Bound in 2026 Amid High Stocks and Weak Exports

Malaysia’s palm oil plantation sector is expected to face a more challenging operating environment in 2026, despite relatively stable production. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board at the Palm Oil Conference and Exhibition (R&O 2026), elevated inventory levels and weak export demand are likely to keep crude palm oil (CPO) prices range-bound. MBSB Research forecasts average CPO prices of around MYR 4,200 per tonne in 2026, with trading largely fluctuating between MYR 4,000 and MYR 4,500 per tonne.

High opening stocks, combined with only modest supply growth, are expected to weigh on prices in the first half of the year, although Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate may provide some downstream support. Malaysia’s palm oil output is projected to decline to 19.5–19.8 million tonnes, down from last year’s record 20.3 million tonnes, as estates enter a biological resting phase following the previous rebound. Exports are also expected to remain subdued at 15.8–16.0 million tonnes, reflecting weak demand from key markets such as India, China, and the EU.