China’s UCO Exports Are Shifting from Volume to Value

Over the past three years, China’s export data for industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) has sent an important signal that many have overlooked: exports have not “collapsed” — instead, UCO is becoming more valuable.

In 2023, China exported approximately 2.06 million tons of UCO, with a total export value of about RMB 14.1 billion. In 2024, export volumes surged to 2.95 million tons, while export value rose to RMB 18.8 billion, a clear example of market expansion driven primarily by volume. By 2025, however, exports declined to 2.76 million tons, down roughly 7% year-on-year, yet export value increased further to RMB 21.3 billion, reaching a three-year high.

Lower volumes combined with higher value became the defining feature of 2025.

A rough calculation shows that the average export price of UCO in 2025 rose significantly compared with the previous year. This indicates that China’s UCO is transitioning from a volume-driven commodity to a strategic feedstock competing on quality, compliance, and end-use applications. As the EU’s SAF and biodiesel systems continue to tighten requirements on traceability, carbon intensity, and regulatory compliance, low-quality and non-compliant UCO is gradually being pushed out of the market, while high-standard material commands a growing premium.

These figures also highlight a practical reality: despite a more restrictive policy environment and adjustments to export tax rebates, UCO continues to flow primarily to overseas markets. Claims that large volumes of UCO are being “forced back” into the domestic market are not supported by export value data. International markets remain the primary destination capable of absorbing high-quality UCO and paying a compliance-driven premium.

For China’s domestic biodiesel and SAF industries, this is neither inherently positive nor negative, but rather a structural constraint. Limited feedstock availability and a rising price floor will continue to test cost control and business model design. Looking ahead, the key variable is not whether UCO is exported, but who can provide feedstocks that are compliant, traceable, and low in carbon intensity.